Wednesday, October 24, 2012

The Sports Talk: BCS ODDS

This past weekend the NCAA released the BCS ranking. While I do not agree with the system in place to choose a National Champion, It is what we have and we have to make do. We are going to take a look at the 7 teams in the running for the National Championship. We are going to break down their toughest opponents and see who will be playing in the BCS Championship game that takes place on Jan. 7th 2013.

The first undefeated team is ranked 11th in the BCS poll. The Mississippi State Bulldogs. The Bulldogs have not really played anyone tough except for the Tennessee Volunteers and only won that game by 10. Their first opponent that is going to test what kind of team this really is Alabama who is also the number one team in the nation. I am picking the upset this week since we don't really know how good they are. There is one thing for certain, they will not be representing the SEC in the National Championship game. Odds of the Bulldogs playing for all the marbles 7%.

Oregon State comes in ranked number 7 in the BCS poll. They have come out of nowhere to undefeated for the season. Two quality wins over Wisconsin and UCLA, the Beavers are poised for a run at a perfect season. They have two tests in front of them to end the season. Number 17 Stanford and Number 4 Oregon. The Beavers will in no way end the season perfect. Odds of Oregon St playing for the National Championship 2%.

Number 5 in the BCS is Notre Dame. They have have beat three ranked opponents so far in Michigan St, Michigan and Stanford. Michigan and Stanford gave everything they had and Notre Dame was able to pull out two wins in very tough games. Two teams are left for the Fighting Irish. This Saturday they play the 8th ranked Oklahoma Sooners in Norman. Not the easiest place to play for any team. I think the defense can handle Oklahoma relatively easily. The real challenge will end the season when the Irish take on the Trojans of USC. Notre Dame with these two games left have no shot at playing for the title. Odds of the Irish playing in Miami on the 7th, 14%

Number 4 in the BCS polls are the Ducks of Oregon. This team is fast and just fun to watch but playing easy teams dropped them from number 2 to 4 in the national rankings. I think they will have the toughest run at being undefeated. They still have USC, Stanford, and Oregon St. The Ducks speed will be stopped by the defense of the Trojans. The odds of the Ducks playing for the title 5%.

Kansas State comes in at number 3. The Wildcats has shocked many people this season except this writer who called their wins over West Virgina and Oklahoma. The West Virgina win wasn't even close. They have two tests, Texas Tech, even being ranked should be an easy home win for the cats. They finish the season against an overrated Texas team. That game should also be an easy win for the team from Manhattan. No Big 12 Championship this year, the Wildcats will be playing for the National top prize. Odds of K-State playing for the National Title 40%

Number 2 in the BCS is the Florida Gators. I overlooked them and thought Georgia would be the team playing for the SEC title against Bama. I was mistaken. Florida has been running over people all season. Two games left in the regular season for the Gators. This Saturday they play the number 10 Georgia Bulldogs. They should be able to take them down just as easily as South Carolina. The last game of the season will be against Florida State. I think FSU is a good team but can not play well against a good defense. Florida should win that game by 20 or more. The SEC championship. It's going to be Mississippi State or Bama. I have to say Florida is the best in the SEC and will be playing for the National Title against Kansas State. Odds 22%

Finally we have Alabama and the number one team in the BCS rankings. I have wondered if Alabama is as good as everyone says they are. I feel like they are not. I want you to think about this. Their toughest opponent was Michigan so far. They have had a cakewalk schedule. Anyone can beat Western Kentucky and Kentucky at football. The meat of the Crimson Tide season is coming up very shortly. Mississippi State, LSU, and Texas A&M. Honestly, I can see Alabama losing two games before the end of the year. They are the most Overrated number 1 in recent memory. The odds of the Crimson Tide playing on the 7th of January, 11%.

The BCS Championship game in my opinion will be Florida and Kansas State. I bet fans of traditional football, just salivated at that idea. The third team in the running is Notre Dame. My heart wants to see K-State and Notre Dame Play. Either way, it's going to be a fun finish to the college football season. 


SCD said...

I see very little data behind this analysis. I give it a D-; you basically stated your opinion the whole time with no analysis as to how you came to your conclusion about each team.

Richard Pruitt said...

I could tell stats all day long. I spent an hour of research on each team to decide the decision i came up with. The average sports fan doesn't pay attention to the numbers. They see if their team won or lost. We are going for your average sports fan.